Global Business Voice

Member Survey: The Impact and Recovery of Covid-19

The AGN Covid Business Recovery Index is a survey based on our member's opinions about how Covid-19 has impacted their country's economy and how fast it might recover. Each month four key data points will be published to indicate the current levels of business sentiment amongst our members. These will relate to ‘Business Confidence’ over the last 30 days and the coming 30 days, and ‘Recovery Expectation’ - Members views on how quickly things will revert to pre-covid levels of business activity.

In this edition, business confidence gets a boost as vaccines deployment gathers pace. The data shows a significant increase with the highest levels since June 2020. Is the return to normality getting closer in range?

Member Survey: The Impact and Recovery of Covid-19

The AGN Covid Business Recovery Index is a survey based on our member's opinions about how Covid-19 has impacted their country's economy and how fast it might recover. Each month four key data points will be published to indicate the current levels of business sentiment amongst our members. These will relate to ‘Business Confidence’ over the last 30 days and the coming 30 days, and ‘Recovery Expectation’ - Members views on how quickly things will revert to pre-covid levels of business activity.

Business confidence has plummeted from +11% to -16% in just two months – now below the levels seen in October 2020! However, the view for the month ahead remains largely positive, and there has been only a small decrease in AGN members who envisage an improvement in business performance in the next
90 days. But strikingly, far fewer members (almost half of last times result) are expecting economies to return to pre-covid levels within 12 months.

Is the UK Still an Attractive Gateway to Europe?

Impacts of the Post EU-UK Trade and Cooperation Agreement (“TCA”).

Since 11 pm (GMT) on 31 December 2020, it would seem that everything has changed and nothing has changed. Is the UK a more or less attractive place to do business? Take the long-term stalwart of the UK, the US and the 'special relationship'…

In the US the TCA struck on Christmas Eve was broadly welcomed. It removed a major potential source of friction between Boris Johnson's government and the incoming Biden administration. But has Brexit reduced the value of the UK's relationship with the US as it is no longer in the corridors of power in Brussels, influencing EU decisions? And is Britain still the ideal access point for businesses seeking a platform from which to launch their European ventures?

Member Survey: The Impact and Recovery of Covid-19

The AGN Covid Business Recovery Index is a survey based on our member's opinions about how Covid-19 has impacted their country's economy and how fast it might recover. Each month four key data points will be published to indicate the current levels of business sentiment amongst our members. These will relate to ‘Business Confidence’ over the last 30 days and the coming 30 days, and ‘Recovery Expectation’ - Members views on how quickly things will revert to pre-covid levels of business activity.

August results show that while overall business confidence has levelled out a little, it is still relatively optimistic. We also report a significant jump in members who predict a return to pre-covid levels of economic activity within 12 months from now (18 months from the start of the Covid crisis). Many countries are experiencing a second wave of Covid 19, and the real test of how sustainable members “cautious optimism” is, will be revealed in the next issue of the index.

Member Survey: The Impact and Recovery of Covid-19

The AGN Covid Business Recovery Index is a survey based on our member's opinions about how Covid-19 has impacted their country's economy and how fast it might recover. Each month four key data points will be published to indicate the current levels of business sentiment amongst our members. These will relate to ‘Business Confidence’ over the last 30 days and the coming 30 days, and ‘Recovery Expectation’ - Members views on how quickly things will revert to pre-covid levels of business activity.

Overall, the main message is a short term decline in confidence but a much more modest adjustment to long term expectations. Recent news of progress in the development of a vaccine is, of course, encouraging, and financial markets have bounced, even though substantial public health benefit is likely a number of months away at best. Our index shows us that 80% of our respondents were already expecting business performance improvements within the next 12 months - it will be interesting to see whether our next survey shows a reduction in the 48% of respondents believing that we will not see pre-Covid levels of business performance within the next two year.

The Increased Business Risks Posed by Social Media as COVID-19 Forces Remote Working

AGN Global Business Voice:
In this edition of the AGN Global Business Voice, we take a look at how SMEs deal with their social media activities – through the lens of our panel of 46 business advisers/firms across the world.

Last year it was estimated that 3.4 billion people were social media users - that’s 9% up on 2018 and a staggering 45% of the world’s population. In March this year, i.e. peak pandemic, Facebook announced a 50% increase in messaging on its platform in the countries most affected by COVID-19. Between February and March, Instagram recorded 4.4m new users. For
some time, people have become concerned about whether the benefits of the social media phenomenon outweigh the social problems it creates. But, whatever you feel about social media, if you run a business, the statistics tell you it shouldn’t be ignored.

There is increasing scepticism about the commercial uses of social media with some suggesting that the ‘must-have’ digital targeting platforms are less of a laudable gift to SME business than was once thought. There is even the suggestion that Facebook has created a whole generation of ‘bad customers’ – lazy, disloyal, expensive, elusive...and fickle.

Member Survey: The Impact and Recovery of Covid-19

The AGN Covid Business Recovery Index is a survey based on our member's opinions about how Covid-19 has impacted their country's economy and how fast it might recover. Each month four key data points will be published to indicate the current levels of business sentiment amongst our members. These will relate to ‘Business Confidence’ over the last 30 days and the coming 30 days, and ‘Recovery Expectation’ - Members views on how quickly things will revert to pre-covid levels of business activity.

In the second edition, results show a marked confidence improvement in the last 30 days, but opinions on the future remain cautious at best.

Member Survey: The Impact and Recovery of Covid-19

The AGN Covid Business Recovery Index is a survey based on our member's opinions about how Covid-19 has impacted their country's economy and how fast it might recover. Each month four key data points will be published to indicate the current levels of business sentiment amongst our members. These will relate to ‘Business Confidence’ over the last 30 days and the coming 30 days, and ‘Recovery Expectation’ - Members views on how quickly things will revert to pre-covid levels of business activity.

This week, the World Bank forecast a 5.2 per cent drop in global GDP in 2020 and the US Fed indicated output is expected to be 6.5 per cent lower at the end of this year than it was in the final quarter of 2019. In more positive news, Chinese industrial output grew 4.4 per cent in May - the first expansion since the virus emerged in China late last year.

Is the global recession late?

AGN Global Business Voice:
In this edition, we asked our global panel of SME business advisers - “where is the recession?”. The AGN Global Business Voice (GBV) panel comprises 44 senior accountancy and business advisory professionals from leading financial advisory and consultancy firms across the world.

In June 2019, the economic expansion of the US reached its tenth anniversary and the longest period of sustained economic growth on record. However, commentators have been saying for some time that the global economy is due a significant “adjustment”….but it’s late. Where is it? Across the major economies we can see bullish share valuations and increasing profits. Trump has occasionally criticised the Federal Reserve for not cutting interest rates, and stating they should be introducing a round of QE. Why? When the economy is so… “tremendous”?

Aritificial Intelligence and the Entrepreneur 
The fourth industrial revolution?

AGN Global Business Voice:
The world is musing over the potential impact of Artificial Intelligence (AI). Forrester predicted “A greater than 300% increase in investment in artificial intelligence in 2017”, and Sundar Pichai CEO of Google wrote in 2016 that; “The last 10 years have been about building a world that is mobile first. In the next 10 years, we will shift to a world that is AI first”.

Member Survey: The Impact and Recovery of Covid-19

The AGN Covid Business Recovery Index is a survey based on our member's opinions about how Covid-19 has impacted their country's economy and how fast it might recover. Each month four key data points will be published to indicate the current levels of business sentiment amongst our members. These will relate to ‘Business Confidence’ over the last 30 days and the coming 30 days, and ‘Recovery Expectation’ - Members views on how quickly things will revert to pre-covid levels of business activity.

In this edition, business confidence gets a boost as vaccines deployment gathers pace. The data shows a significant increase with the highest levels since June 2020. Is the return to normality getting closer in range?

Member Survey: The Impact and Recovery of Covid-19

The AGN Covid Business Recovery Index is a survey based on our member's opinions about how Covid-19 has impacted their country's economy and how fast it might recover. Each month four key data points will be published to indicate the current levels of business sentiment amongst our members. These will relate to ‘Business Confidence’ over the last 30 days and the coming 30 days, and ‘Recovery Expectation’ - Members views on how quickly things will revert to pre-covid levels of business activity.

Business confidence has plummeted from +11% to -16% in just two months – now below the levels seen in October 2020! However, the view for the month ahead remains largely positive, and there has been only a small decrease in AGN members who envisage an improvement in business performance in the next
90 days. But strikingly, far fewer members (almost half of last times result) are expecting economies to return to pre-covid levels within 12 months.

Is the UK Still an Attractive Gateway to Europe?

Impacts of the Post EU-UK Trade and Cooperation Agreement (“TCA”).

Since 11 pm (GMT) on 31 December 2020, it would seem that everything has changed and nothing has changed. Is the UK a more or less attractive place to do business? Take the long-term stalwart of the UK, the US and the 'special relationship'…

In the US the TCA struck on Christmas Eve was broadly welcomed. It removed a major potential source of friction between Boris Johnson's government and the incoming Biden administration. But has Brexit reduced the value of the UK's relationship with the US as it is no longer in the corridors of power in Brussels, influencing EU decisions? And is Britain still the ideal access point for businesses seeking a platform from which to launch their European ventures?

Member Survey: The Impact and Recovery of Covid-19

The AGN Covid Business Recovery Index is a survey based on our member's opinions about how Covid-19 has impacted their country's economy and how fast it might recover. Each month four key data points will be published to indicate the current levels of business sentiment amongst our members. These will relate to ‘Business Confidence’ over the last 30 days and the coming 30 days, and ‘Recovery Expectation’ - Members views on how quickly things will revert to pre-covid levels of business activity.

August results show that while overall business confidence has levelled out a little, it is still relatively optimistic. We also report a significant jump in members who predict a return to pre-covid levels of economic activity within 12 months from now (18 months from the start of the Covid crisis). Many countries are experiencing a second wave of Covid 19, and the real test of how sustainable members “cautious optimism” is, will be revealed in the next issue of the index.

Member Survey: The Impact and Recovery of Covid-19

The AGN Covid Business Recovery Index is a survey based on our member's opinions about how Covid-19 has impacted their country's economy and how fast it might recover. Each month four key data points will be published to indicate the current levels of business sentiment amongst our members. These will relate to ‘Business Confidence’ over the last 30 days and the coming 30 days, and ‘Recovery Expectation’ - Members views on how quickly things will revert to pre-covid levels of business activity.

Overall, the main message is a short term decline in confidence but a much more modest adjustment to long term expectations. Recent news of progress in the development of a vaccine is, of course, encouraging, and financial markets have bounced, even though substantial public health benefit is likely a number of months away at best. Our index shows us that 80% of our respondents were already expecting business performance improvements within the next 12 months - it will be interesting to see whether our next survey shows a reduction in the 48% of respondents believing that we will not see pre-Covid levels of business performance within the next two year.

The Increased Business Risks Posed by Social Media as COVID-19 Forces Remote Working

AGN Global Business Voice:
In this edition of the AGN Global Business Voice, we take a look at how SMEs deal with their social media activities – through the lens of our panel of 46 business advisers/firms across the world.

Last year it was estimated that 3.4 billion people were social media users - that’s 9% up on 2018 and a staggering 45% of the world’s population. In March this year, i.e. peak pandemic, Facebook announced a 50% increase in messaging on its platform in the countries most affected by COVID-19. Between February and March, Instagram recorded 4.4m new users. For
some time, people have become concerned about whether the benefits of the social media phenomenon outweigh the social problems it creates. But, whatever you feel about social media, if you run a business, the statistics tell you it shouldn’t be ignored.

There is increasing scepticism about the commercial uses of social media with some suggesting that the ‘must-have’ digital targeting platforms are less of a laudable gift to SME business than was once thought. There is even the suggestion that Facebook has created a whole generation of ‘bad customers’ – lazy, disloyal, expensive, elusive...and fickle.

Member Survey: The Impact and Recovery of Covid-19

The AGN Covid Business Recovery Index is a survey based on our member's opinions about how Covid-19 has impacted their country's economy and how fast it might recover. Each month four key data points will be published to indicate the current levels of business sentiment amongst our members. These will relate to ‘Business Confidence’ over the last 30 days and the coming 30 days, and ‘Recovery Expectation’ - Members views on how quickly things will revert to pre-covid levels of business activity.

In the second edition, results show a marked confidence improvement in the last 30 days, but opinions on the future remain cautious at best.

Member Survey: The Impact and Recovery of Covid-19

The AGN Covid Business Recovery Index is a survey based on our member's opinions about how Covid-19 has impacted their country's economy and how fast it might recover. Each month four key data points will be published to indicate the current levels of business sentiment amongst our members. These will relate to ‘Business Confidence’ over the last 30 days and the coming 30 days, and ‘Recovery Expectation’ - Members views on how quickly things will revert to pre-covid levels of business activity.

This week, the World Bank forecast a 5.2 per cent drop in global GDP in 2020 and the US Fed indicated output is expected to be 6.5 per cent lower at the end of this year than it was in the final quarter of 2019. In more positive news, Chinese industrial output grew 4.4 per cent in May - the first expansion since the virus emerged in China late last year.

Is the global recession late?

AGN Global Business Voice:
In this edition, we asked our global panel of SME business advisers - “where is the recession?”. The AGN Global Business Voice (GBV) panel comprises 44 senior accountancy and business advisory professionals from leading financial advisory and consultancy firms across the world.

In June 2019, the economic expansion of the US reached its tenth anniversary and the longest period of sustained economic growth on record. However, commentators have been saying for some time that the global economy is due a significant “adjustment”….but it’s late. Where is it? Across the major economies we can see bullish share valuations and increasing profits. Trump has occasionally criticised the Federal Reserve for not cutting interest rates, and stating they should be introducing a round of QE. Why? When the economy is so… “tremendous”?

Aritificial Intelligence and the Entrepreneur 
The fourth industrial revolution?

AGN Global Business Voice:
The world is musing over the potential impact of Artificial Intelligence (AI). Forrester predicted “A greater than 300% increase in investment in artificial intelligence in 2017”, and Sundar Pichai CEO of Google wrote in 2016 that; “The last 10 years have been about building a world that is mobile first. In the next 10 years, we will shift to a world that is AI first”.